Analyst predicts an upcoming $6 billion market in COVID-19 vaccine sales in India for the next three years. The number comes through a realistic approach upon the country’s current situation related to COVID-19 vaccines development and immunization programmes. Meanwhile, numeral institutions are currently under trials with various types of vaccines under development.
The detailed equation on the estimated sales of COVID-19 vaccine in India
Mint quotes Nithya Balasubramanian, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, that the market sales for COVID-19 vaccine could potentially bring a minimum amount of $2 billion up to $6 billion. The equation is calculated from the amount of population in India need to be immunized to achieve herd immunity level, which accounts at the very least half of the population in India. Providing the vaccines to the entire population, therefore, will double the current Central Government Healthcare budget into $6 billion more.
Balasubramanian further elaborates with a more realistic approach. The government will most likely provide two doses of vaccine to 30% of India’s roughly 1.3 billion population. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will be purchasing their own vaccines. The estimated price for the vaccine itself ranges from $3 per dose under the government procurement and $6 for the private market. A realistic estimation agreed by Institutions handling the vaccine, as they also plan on catering to other low- and middle-income countries. Additionally, to proceed with the said plan might take almost three years.
Institutions participating in the vaccine development
Mint reports at least three vaccines are currently under human trials. The frontrunner of the rally is Serum Institute of India. The adenovirus-based vaccine co-developed by the University of Oxford and Astrazeneca plc. is already on phase 2 and 3 trial. The end of the phase 3 trial is expected to come by the end of this year.
Two vaccines being developed are indigenous, Mint says. The one co-developed by Bharat Biotech International Ltd and Indian Council of Medical Research’s National Institute of Virology in Pune is a wholly-inactivated vaccine. Another vaccine developed by Zydus Cadila Ltd. Is a DNA plasmid, and currently undergoing phase 1 and 2 trials. Both expect to launch the vaccines early next year.
Other three to four vaccines are still under pre-clinical trials. Among them are Gennova Biopharmaceuticals, Panacea Biotec, and India Immunologicals’ vaccine. All three are currently developing different vaccines as follow: mRNA vaccine, wholly-inactivated vaccine, and attenuated virus vaccine respectively.
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