Indonesia might face an expansion in July’s trade surplus. This comes as an effect of the mobility restrictions in order to control a spike in COVID-19 cases.
Southeast Asia’s biggest economy has been enjoying an export boom on the back of high commodity prices, allowing for a trade surplus every month since May of 2020.
The median forecast of 10 analysts in the poll was for a July trade surplus of $2.27 billion, up from the previous month’s $1.32 billion.
Export growth of 30.20%, on an annual basis, was forecast.
While high commodity prices still supported shipments, the estimated increase would be the lowest since February and below the more than 50% growth rate recorded between April to June.
Imports were seen shrinking on a monthly basis, but up 52.15% annually due to a low base effect.
“We expect a wider trade surplus from the previous month as imports recede following the July lockdowns in Java,” analysts with Citi Indonesia said.
Some economists have said high commodity prices and a global economic recovery will likely allow resource-rich Indonesia to book big export earnings for the remainder of the year, but imports may take a hit as COVID-19 curbs imposed since July dampen domestic demand.
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