Recent reports regarding the coronavirus cases in China say that the number has already surpassed SARS. Following this, the economic impact of this virus from Wuhan could inevitably be more severe than the epidemic of 2002-2003, economists said.
Back then, it took more than six months for the SARS cases to surpass 5,000 in China. According to the World Health Organization, there had been 5,327 SARS cases between Nov. 1, 2002 and July 31, 2003. However, it only took a month for the new coronavirus cases to climb past 5,000 just this Tuesday.
As per China’s National Health Commission’s report, the number of cases in China reached 5,974 at the end of Tuesday. The mortality rate of SARS victims were about 7 percent. The death rate for this new strain of virus has an initial figure of 2 to 3 percent.
This virus from Wuhan could lead to a type of pneumonia. This has caused alarm as it comes from the same family as the SARS virus. As of Wednesday’s update from mainland China, the outbreak has killed 132 infected people.
Economic Effect on China
China’s real GDP growth dropped by 2 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2003 due to the SARS outbreak. The effects of the coronavirus, however, might be a temporary shock which will affect demand and supply. It might not leave a long-lasting impact.
However, analysts said that the current slowdown and timing of the recovery is determined by the unfolding coronavirus and this remains uncertain.
The outbreak also happened just before the Lunar New Year Holiday, where a lot of Chinese citizens travelled domestically and internationally to be with their families for the festivities. During the next few weeks, there will be a massive flow of citizens coming back to major cities for work.
Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, said that even if the novel coronavirus can be brought under control quicker than the SARS outbreak, the economic impact will most likely be at a similar scale.
