The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global coal demand, which hit an all-time high last year, will remain at a similar level this year.
The IEA, headquartered in Paris, France, predicted coal demand in 2023 to be 8.388 billion tons, up 0.4% from the previous year, in an interim report on coal published on the 27th (local time).
The increase in coal demand was led by China, India, and Indonesia this year following last year, and demand decreased in the United States, the European Union (EU), Japan, and South Korea, but failed to offset the increase.
Demand in China, which consumes the most coal in the world, is expected to rise 3.5% from last year and 5% in India, which relies on coal and is growing rapidly.
China and India’s coal demand this year is 4.679 billion tons and 212 million tons, respectively, predicted by the IEA. The combined demand of the two countries is 5.89 billion tons, accounting for 70% of global coal demand.
Indonesia, which consumed more than 200 million tons of coal for the first time last year, ranked fifth after China, India, the United States and Russia, is expected to maintain that level this year thanks to economic growth.
The IEA explained, “Whether coal demand increases or decreases in 2023 depends on weather conditions and the economic growth outlook of countries that rely heavily on coal.”
In terms of production, China, India and Indonesia, the world’s three largest coal producers, set record highs, while China and India re-recorded their monthly best production records in March this year.
On the contrary, the U.S. and the EU predicted that coal demand in the first half of this year will fall 24% and 16%, respectively, due to low electricity demand and increased share of renewable energy.
In the United States, low gas prices played a part, and in Europe, nuclear and hydroelectric power, which were low last year, restored their power generation capacity.
In Japan and Korea, demand for coal is also expected to decrease by 1.9% and 2.8%, respectively.
“Carbon is the most carbon-emitting energy source,” said Sadamori Keisuke, head of IEA’s energy market and security bureau. “In Asia, demand for coal is still high.”
He added that “international cooperation is needed to reduce coal demand in countries where energy demand is rapidly increasing,” such as Europe and the United States, which are structurally reducing coal use by increasing clean energy use.
