Due to Russia’s full-scale invasion and indiscriminate attacks, Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be only half that of last year.
According to AFP on the 10th (local time), the World Bank (WB) expects Ukraine’s GDP to fall 45.1% year-on-year this year. “How far Ukraine’s economy will fall depends entirely on the duration and strength of the war,” WB said.
In January this year alone, before the Russian invasion, the WB predicted that Ukraine’s economy would grow 3% this year. But the Russian invasion completely changed Ukraine’s economic situation.
“The Russian invasion is taking a huge toll on Ukraine’s economy and also on infrastructure,” said Anna Bjerde, vice president of WB Europe and Central Asia.
The WB pointed out that the war destroyed much of Ukraine’s production infrastructure, including railways, bridges, ports and roads, which meant that economic activity was impossible in many parts of Ukraine.
It also feared that agricultural production would be disrupted, further reducing Ukraine’s economic potential and adversely affecting the global economy.
As a result, the proportion of the poor living on less than $5.5 a day in Ukraine was only 1.8 percent before the war, but this year it will soar to 19.8 percent, WB explained, adding that immediate aid is needed for the Ukrainian people and economy.
Russia’s economy is also expected to suffer a significant downturn this year due to strong Western sanctions.
WB predicted that demand, jobs and income in the region will decrease, poverty rates and prices will soar, and supply chains will deteriorate as Russia’s economic growth rate hit -11.2% this year.
In addition, the WB predicted that the economies of emerging developing countries in Europe and Central Asia would fall 4.1%.
In particular, countries with large economic ties to Russia and Ukraine, such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Tajikistan, were expected to suffer from economic growth due to reduced trade and blocked financial networks with Russia.
