The International Monetary Fund (IMF) again lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year on the 26th (local time).
In a revised edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on the same day, the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than the 3.6 percent forecast in April. It proposed the global economic growth forecast at 4.4 percent in January, but it was lowered this time following April.
The IMF explained in its previous April report that it lowered its growth forecast as the downside risks that were feared are now realized. At that time, the IMF pointed to global inflation (price rise), slower growth in China, and the Ukraine war as risk factors.
In the report, the IMF pointed out, “The recovery, which had slowed down in 2021, gradually developed into a gloomy situation in 2022.”
This year’s economic growth forecast for advanced countries is an average of 2.5%. The U.S. is 2.3%, the eurozone is 2.6%, Japan is 1.7%, the U.K. is 3.2%, and Canada is 3.4%. Within the eurozone, Germany was forecast to be 1.2%, France 2.3%, Italy 3.0%, and Spain 4.0%.
Emerging and developing countries are expected to grow 3.6 percent this year. In the case of emerging and developing countries in Asia, 4.6% were expected, with China at 3.3% and India at 7.4%. Emerging and developing countries in Latin America are expected to grow 3.0%, with Brazil at 1.7% and Mexico at 2.4%. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s growth rate is expected to be 7.6% (same as in April).
In the case of Russia, which has invaded Ukraine and is engaged in a long-term war of attrition, this year’s economic growth forecast is expected to be -6.0 and it is expected to remain negative at -3.5% next year. This year’s forecast was raised by 2.5%p from April, and next year’s forecast was lowered by 1.2%.
The global economic growth forecast for next year is 2.9 percent, also down from a 3.6 percent forecast in April.
The economic growth forecast for next year is 1.4%, including 1.0% in the U.S., 1.2% in the eurozone, 1.7% in Japan, 0.5% in the U.K., and 1.8% in Canada. Emerging and developing countries’ economic growth forecast for next year was 3.9%, with China at 4.6%, India at 6.1%, Brazil at 1.1%, and Mexico at 1.2%.