According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), uncertainty in the global economy is expected to grow and growth power is expected to weaken this year.
On the 15th (local time), the Davos Forum released a report titled “Senior Economist Outlook: January 2024.” According to a report on the results of in-depth interviews with 30 economists around the world from November to December last year, more than half of them, 56 percent, said that the global economic power would weaken this year. Twenty percent said it would be similar to last year’s level, and 23 percent said that the growth power would be stronger.
The report categorized economic growth into ‘very weak’, ‘weak’, ‘medium’, ‘strong’, and ‘very strong’. Scholars unanimously agreed that there are no regions where very strong economic growth is expected this year. In particular, the outlook for low growth in Europe was strong. 77% of scholars predicted that Europe would record weak or very weak economic growth this year. The figure is about twice that of the survey conducted in September last year.
For East Asia, including Korea, more than 85 percent said it would show more than moderate growth. Only 15 percent of scholars believe that the region’s economic growth will be weak or very weak this year. The outlook for each country was not presented separately.
In the case of the U.S. and China, the proportion of scholars who predicted moderate growth this year was 56% and 69%, respectively. The report explained that China’s relatively high expectations reflected the outlook for a rebound in the real estate market in China. However, China added that slow consumption and a decline in industrial production could come together.
Economists feared that geopolitical conflicts in various parts of the world, including the U.S.-China hegemony competition and the Middle East and Ukraine wars, would negatively affect the global economy. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said the division would deepen this year, and 87 percent said the global economy could become more volatile over the next three years.
For geopolitical reasons, many predicted that economic blockades would expand within the next three years (80%) or that the income gap between countries would widen (56%).
The Davos Forum said it has set “rebuilding trust” to lower geopolitical risks as the theme of this year’s forum. The move is aimed at building trust again so that each can find a way to coexist in crises such as geopolitical conflicts, climate change, slowing economy, retreat of multilateralism, and fake information.
