Some predict that uncertainties in the mineral market, a representative raw material, will rise further in the aftermath of next year’s economic recession. Whether China’s economic recovery and supply crisis are resolved are considered variables.
In the case of lithium, which is used as a key material for electric vehicle batteries, it is widely expected that prices will fall next year due to slowing demand for electric vehicles and oversupply.
The high price of lithium, which began at the end of last year, continues. The price of lithium, which was only 48,000 yuan in early January last year, surpassed 200,000 yuan in December of the same year and exceeded 500,000 yuan in October. This is the result of a shortage of supply due to overproduction by Chinese battery companies.
However, it is predicted that the nose of lithium prices, which had been increasing, will be dampened from next year. In the aftermath of the Chinese authorities’ cut in subsidies for electric vehicles, demand for vehicles has decreased, which could lead to an oversupply of lithium.
Morgan Stanley predicted that the price of lithium, which is currently in the 500,000 yuan range, will fall to $67,500 (469,884 million yuan) per ton in the first half of next year and $47,500 (336,659 yuan) in the second half of next year. Goldman Sachs predicted that the average price of lithium will fall to $16,000 per ton (111,379 yuan) next year.
In the case of other raw material such as copper, it is widely expected that prices will rise due to expectations for easing inflation and a lack of supply.
The stock of copper on the exchange, which reached 180,000 tons as of May, fell to 84,300 tons as of the 12th. Goldman Sachs predicted that copper prices will rise to $9,750 per ton as demand for metals is increasing mainly in China, while supply volume is falling short.