In a report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) on the 16th (local time), two-thirds of economic experts around the world predicted the possibility of a global economic recession this year.
According to the “Head Economist Outlook” report released by the WEF on the same day, 63% of all respondents said there is a possibility of a global economic recession this year.
In particular, 18% predicted a high possibility of a global economic recession, which is more than twice the result of the same survey conducted by the WEF in September last year, meaning that more experts are pessimistic about the economic outlook in recent years. However, WEF added that there are mixed views of experts, with about one-third of the respondents still thinking that the possibility of a global economic recession is low.
In particular, experts viewed the possibility of low growth in the U.S. and Europe by region. As for the United States, 91% said it would grow low, and as for Europe, all of the survey subjects predicted low growth. At the time of the survey in September last year, 64% predicted low growth in the U.S. this year and 86% predicted low growth in Europe. Regarding Europe, the report pointed out, “It is highly likely that the aftermath of the Ukrainian war and the impact of a sharp rate hike will be reflected.”
On the other hand, experts have mixed expectations about China’s economic outlook for this year. 48% of respondents predicted low growth and 52% said they would show growth.
The report said, “We expect China’s recent lifting of the Zero Corona policy to revitalize growth,” but predicted, “A number of factors such as weak consumer sentiment, failure to meet the 2022 GDP growth target, and continued tension in the financial market and real estate sector could hamper China’s growth in 2023.”
Experts predict that inflation, which plagued the world last year, will continue this year, but there will be differences between regions. 57% of experts predicted that high prices would continue in Europe, but relatively few experts expected high prices to continue in the United States (24%), China (5%), and East Asia and the Pacific (16%).
Regarding U.S. monetary policy, 55% predicted further tightening, 27% expected easing and 18% expected similar to the present.
“High prices, low growth, and high financial costs will reduce investment incentives to return to growth,” WEF Executive Director Adia Zahidi said in a report. “Leaders in each country should look at the post-crisis situation by creating jobs and investing in high-potential markets through energy and technology innovation.”