Indonesia’s economic outlook, which is expected to grow in the 5% range for the second consecutive year, is also dimming as Indonesia’s exports have decreased by nearly 10% from a year ago.
According to the Indonesian National Statistical Office (BPS) on the 17th, Indonesia’s exports in the first half of this year were USD 128.7 billion, down 8.9% from the first half of last year (USD 141.2 billion, about.
This is because raw material prices such as coal, palm oil, and nickel, which are major exports of Indonesia, have fallen and global demand for other exports has weakened.
In particular, last month, exports recorded USD 20.61 billion as exports of coal and palm oil decreased significantly, down 21.2% from a year ago. The decline was larger than the Reuters survey of economists (-18.9%).
Imports also declined due to falling prices of raw materials such as oil prices. Imports in the first half of last year were USD 108.7 billion, down 6.4% from a year ago. Imports fell 18.4% last month from a year ago as demand shrank due to sluggish domestic demand, down from the survey’s estimate (-7.8%).
The trade surplus fell 20.4% from a year ago to $19.9 billion as imports fell in the first half of the year, but exports fell further.
As exports and imports have been sluggish, the Indonesian government’s goal of achieving economic growth in the 5% range for the second consecutive year is also on alert.
Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose 5.3% year-on-year last year, the highest in nine years, and expects growth in the 5% range this year.
Raw material prices will fall this year, but it is expected to achieve 5% growth as demand is maintained due to China’s daily recovery after COVID-19.
However, concerns are also growing in the Indonesian economy as raw material prices fall faster than expected, and the effect of ending “Zero COVID” will not be significant due to China’s deflation (price drop) outlook and a slump in the real estate market
