The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted on the 25th (local time) that global grain prices will rise by up to 15% due to Russia’s destruction of the Black Sea Grain Agreement.
“The Black Sea Grain Agreement played a very important role in ensuring sufficient grain supply from Ukraine,” IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gorinchas told reporters, adding, “If the agreement is suspended, it could act as a factor in price hikes.” “We are evaluating how far grain prices will rise,” he said adding, “The range of 10-15% increase is a reasonable estimate.”
The IMF said last week that Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grains Agreement could hurt North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, which rely heavily on Ukrainian grains.
Russia and Ukraine signed a grain agreement in July last year that allowed grain and fertilizer exports through the Black Sea through mediation by Turkiye and the United Nations. Reuters said, “Since then, 33 MT (metric tons) of grain has been exported to Ukraine, playing an important role in food security around the world.” However, Russia unilaterally broke the agreement on the 17th, ahead of the fourth extension of the deadline, and has been attacking Odessa, a Ukrainian port city on the Black Sea coast, day after day.
The European Union (EU) announced on the same day that it is considering exporting Ukrainian grain, which was exported through the Black Sea, through a “solidarity corridor.” The Solidarity Corridor is a detour that allows grain to be moved through the Baltic ports through land routes of EU member states in Eastern Europe, which borders Ukraine instead of the Black Sea. According to the EU, 60% of Ukraine’s grain was exported using the Solidarity Corridor until just before the Black Sea Grain Agreement was scrapped, and the remaining 40% was transferred to the Black Sea.
Meanwhile, according to the BBC and others, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that “Russia is moving to target the Black Sea (civilian) merchant ship.”
