Japan’s real economic growth rate (GDP) in the July-September quarter is expected to be minus 1.0% at an annual rate, the Nikkei newspaper reported on the 15th.
The media reported that the Nikkei’s survey of 10 private economists showed that Japan’s GDP in the July-August quarter fell like this.
The rebound from the April-June quarter, which showed a 6.0 percent high growth, showed a reverse growth in the July-September quarter, economists predicted.
Based on the April-June quarter GDP breaking news released by the Cabinet Office on the same day, economists predicted that foreign demand would contribute 0.4 points negatively from the previous quarter in the July-September quarter, bringing down the whole.
Exports are expected to increase 0.4% from the previous quarter, but will slow sharply from a 3.2% increase in the April-June quarter.
The Economist said, “Foreign demand will continue to lose momentum for the time being,” and analyzed that the adjustment of the global semiconductor market is likely to continue until the second half, lowering production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and electronic components.
The average forecast for domestic demand will recover from the previous quarter with a positive 0.2 point contribution, economists predicted.
Personal consumption increased by 0.3% from the previous year, turning to positive, and facility investment was expected to be 0.6% positive. All are expected to grow positively after the October-December quarter.
In the preceding article, it was pointed out as a risk that the U.S. and the eurozone continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation.
“The cumulative adverse effects of the rate hike have surfaced over time,” the economist said.
The probability of the U.S., the Eurozone, and Japan falling into an economic recession is expected to reach its highest point in the January-March quarter of 2024.
The probability reached 37% in the United States, 42% in Europe, and 24% in Japan, respectively. The deterioration of the overseas economy could also act as a risk that will lead to the Japanese economy.
