The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted that global economic growth will slow down next year than originally expected due to each country’s tight monetary policy to curb inflation and China’s economic rebound that falls short of expectations.
In its interim economic outlook report released on the 19th (local time), the OECD, headquartered in Paris, France, predicted that the global economic growth rate for 2024 would be 2.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from June.
This is lower than the OECD forecast of 3.0% economic growth this year.
“Global GDP growth is expected to remain low this year and next year due to tightening macroeconomic policies to curb inflation,” the OECD said.
Economic growth forecasts for the G20 are expected to be 3.1% and 2.7% this year and next year, respectively, similar to or the same as the global economic growth rate.
In particular, the pace of economic growth in the U.S. and China, the two major pillars of the global economy, is expected to slow down more next year than this year.
In the case of the U.S., the pace of growth is expected to slow from 2.2% this year to 1.3% next year as demand decreases due to tight fiscal measures.
China, which switched to With Corona at the end of last year, is expected to see economic growth rise to 5.1% this year, up from 3.0% last year, but it is expected to fall back to 4.6% next year due to sluggish domestic demand and shrinking real estate economy.
Forecasts for major countries are also grim, with acorn height.
In the case of the eurozone, where demand has already slowed due to high inflation, it is expected to barely escape “zero growth” this year, growing only 0.6% from 3.4% last year. The OECD predicted that the growth rate will be 1.1% next year as the shock wave of high inflation on real income disappears.
Germany, the largest economy, has the greatest impact on the eurozone’s economic forecasts. Germany is expected to reversely grow -0.2% this year, falling from last year’s 1.9% growth rate due to the steady inflation and sluggish industrial sector. Next year’s forecast is 0.9%, which is expected to grow positively.
In Asia, emerging market economies India and Indonesia are expected to show relatively stable growth rates of 6.0% and 5.2%, respectively, next year. The two countries’ GDP growth forecasts for this year were also 6.3 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, far above the global average.
